Invest 90-L Located Over The Northwestern Caribbean: Weather analysis indicates that Invest 90-L, which is a broad area of low pressure, is located very near the northeastern part of Belize. Satellite imagery indicates that there is scattered thunderstorm activity occurring from the Florida Straits southward through the northwestern Caribbean. The environmental conditions are currently unfavorable for development due to 25 to 40 knots of west-northwest wind shear that is impacting the southern Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean. It is anticipated that environmental conditions will remain unfavorable for development today and Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development starting on Friday and continuing through this weekend as Invest 90-L moves northward into the central Gulf of Mexico. It looks like this system will head for the northern US Gulf Coast between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle late this weekend.

Looking at the latest model guidance – There continues to be large differences in the model guidance regarding their forecasts of where Invest 90-L will track across the Gulf of Mexico later this week and this weekend.

The European model guidance continues to forecast a track that takes Invest 90-L inland over southeastern Louisiana and the coast of Mississippi on Monday. This type of track would lead the heaviest rains to occur across southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

The GFS model guidance continues to insist on showing a weak sloppy tropical system to track east-northeastward across the Florida Keys and south Florida late this weekend. I am discounting the GFS model as it is way too far east with its forecast track and that in the end we will see a more westward track than what the GFS model shows. This is supported by the GFS ensemble model guidance which most of its members forecast a track that takes Invest 90-L inland into the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday.

The Canadian model guidance is a little further east than the European model guidance and forecasts a slow moving tropical storm to move inland into southeastern Mississippi and southern Alabama by Monday morning.

The UKMET model guidance is in-between the Canadian model and the GFS ensemble guidance and forecasts Invest 90-L to ultimately track inland into the western Florida Panhandle early next week.

My thinking is that the ultimate track of Invest 90-L will be somewhere between the GFS ensemble, UKMET model and Canadian model guidance forecasts with a track inland along the Alabama or Florida Panhandle coasts later this weekend as a tropical storm.

Here Are My Thoughts: My overall thinking with Invest 90-L hasn’t changed a whole lot since yesterday regarding both the development and track of Invest 90-L. I think that there is at least a 50 percent chance that we will see a tropical depression or a tropical storm form in the central Gulf of Mexico between Friday and Sunday.

At this point, I think that we will see northward tracking tropical storm from the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday into Saturday to area between the Alabama coastline and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday and Monday. In addition, there is growing evidence that points towards that this will be a very slow moving system when it reaches the northern US Gulf Coast and this could really exacerbate the heavy rainfall/flood threat along the northern and eastern US Gulf Coast.

This will be a east weighted and very messy tropical storm and heavy rainfall and flooding will be the main threat with this system If this system moves inland into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle like I currently think it will, then extremely heavy rainfall and flooding can be expected across southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the entire Florida Panhandle and western Florida, especially from Tampa and points north. Storm rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts are likely across these areas this weekend through early next week. In addition, severe weather and tornadoes is also a potential concern across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and parts of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Panhandle this weekend into early next week based on my current forecast track.

Any shifts westward in the forecast track would mean the heavy rainfall/flooding threat will also shift westward into Louisiana. Everyone across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Peninsula should keep close tabs on this potential tropical development.

In addition to this, there will be heavy rainfall and storminess that is expected to impact western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and possibly the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula throughout the next few days.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday Morning or sooner if conditions warrant.

Invest 90-L Information:

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery: