Invest 90-L Located Over The Northwestern Caribbean: Invest 90-L is becoming better organized according to satellite imagery and weather analysis with deep convection occurring to the east of the low pressure system due to fairly strong wind shear. In addition, barometric pressures are beginning to fall across the northwestern Caribbean and there has been a ship report of 45 knot winds on the eastern side of the low pressure system. Given that we have falling barometric pressures, a seemingly closed circulation and plenty of organized deep convection, I think that we already have a tropical storm in the northwestern Caribbean.

Environmental conditions are expected to be to become favorable for additional strengthening as Invest 90-L moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and I think that we could see this system strengthen into at least a moderately strong tropical storm by the time it approaches the central US Gulf Coast sometime between late Sunday and late Monday.

Looking at the latest model guidance – The model guidance seems to be converging on a track that takes Invest 90-L inland along the central US Gulf Coast on Monday with Mobile Bay having the highest landfall probability percentages according to the consensus of the European, GFS and Canadian models averaged together.

As for model forecast intensity of Invest 90-L – All of the intensity guidance members forecast this system to be a tropical storm with several guidance members forecasting it to strengthen into a moderately strong tropical storm this weekend.

A majority of the European ensemble guidance are pointing towards a landfall in southern Mississippi on Monday with the European operational model forecasting a landfall right on the Mississippi-Alabama stateline on Monday evening as a 60 mph tropical storm.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that we will see Invest 90-L upgraded to a tropical storm as soon as this afternoon based on everything that I am looking at. This includes falling barometric pressures, a closed circulation on visible satellite imagery and organized deep convection.

It is expected that this system will move northward across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and reach the northern Gulf of Mexico as a 60 mph tropical storm on Sunday. From there, I think that this potential tropical storm will make landfall somewhere between Gulfport, Mississippi and Mobile, Alabama on Monday as a 60 mph tropical storm. There is a chance, albeit a low one right now, that this system could become a hurricane before it makes landfall on Monday. It appears that the environmental conditions will be favorable for strengthening this weekend and it looks like this system will intensify fairly steadily right up to landfall on Monday.

A multi-day heavy rainfall and potentially very serious flood situation is expected along the central and eastern US Gulf Coast as well as across parts of the Southeastern United States beginning this weekend and continuing into the early and middle parts of next week. The heaviest rainfall amounts in excess of 5 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts are forecast across southern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, the entire Florida Panhandle, western Florida, south Florida, a large part of Georgia and central and northwestern South Carolina.

Tropical storm force winds and a storm surge are expected along parts of the northern US Gulf Coast starting on Sunday and continuing through Monday. The most likely areas to receive tropical storm force winds are southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle as far east as Panama City Beach.

There will also be a significant threat for rip currents throughout this weekend along the Gulf Coast from Florida westward to Louisiana.

Everyone along the northern and eastern US Gulf Coast and across the southeastern United States should continue keeping close tabs on this potential tropical storm as it will impact your weather this coming weekend into part of next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday Morning. If Invest 90-L is upgraded to a tropical storm later today, then I will send out an update with this information.

Invest 90-L Information:

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery: