Tropical Storm Dorian:
8 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 17.1 North Latitude, 64.1 West Longitude or about 60 miles to the southeast of St. Croix.
Maximum Winds: 60 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 Millibars or 29.62 Inches.
Forward Movement: Northwest at a forward speed of 13 mph.

Satellite imagery and radar data from Puerto Rico indicates that Dorian is becoming better organized and there is an increasing chance that it could be a hurricane when it impacts Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon and tonight. There is an eyewall presentation in Microwave satellite imagery. These observations are supported by reconnaissance data that indicates Dorian has developed a partial eyewall. In addition, satellite imagery indicates that Dorian has a decent outflow in most quadrants of the storm.

This means that I think that we will probably see strengthening today before Dorian impacts Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

All interests in Puerto Rico & the Virgin Islands should be ready for hurricane conditions this afternoon and tonight.

Given the better organized look of Dorian, I think that significant strengthening is likely once Dorian moves north of Puerto Rico on Thursday.

The weather pattern over the next few days is going to consist of an upper level low pressure system that is located to the north of Hispaniola which is expected to move westward and a high pressure ridge which will build over the western Atlantic late this week through this weekend. Dorian is expected to move to the east of this upper level low pressure system, which will put the storm in a lower shear, favorable environment for strengthening. In addition, that upper level low pressure system will initially steer Dorian on a northwestward course before that ridge of high pressure turns the storm to the west and “shuts the door” on any escape out into the open Atlantic.

No one specific model is correct right now as I think we are seeing the normal model biases in play right now.

The GFS model’s forecast of curving Dorian to the north with a landfall in the Carolinas may be incorrect. The reason why is because historically, the GFS model tends to break down ridges of high pressure too quickly causing a premature turn to the north.

The European model’s forecast of Dorian making landfall between West Palm Beach and Port St. Lucie may also be incorrect. The reason why is because the European model has, historically, forecast too strong of a ridge of high pressure. With that said, the UKMET model guidance has been very consistent in forecasting an impact in the northern Bahamas followed by the center of Dorian making landfall very near West Palm Beach early next week. When the European model and the UKMET model are this close in agreement, it’s hard to ignore & it’s forecast of a significant impact in the northern Bahamas & then from Fort Lauderdale to Palm Bay should be taken seriously.

Even more concerning is that 43 out of the 52 members of the European EPS ensemble guidance and 18 out of the 21 members of the GFS ensemble guidance are forecasting a landfall somewhere along Florida’s East Coast. That is 61 out of 73 members that show a Florida landfall or a 84 percent chance for a landfall along Florida’s East Coast.

The Big Takeaway For The Northern Bahamas, The Florida Peninsula, The Northeastern Gulf Coast, Georgia & The Carolinas Is That there is steadily increasing model guidance support of a significant hurricane landfall somewhere between the Florida Peninsula and North Carolina.

Even if Dorian first makes landfall along Florida’s East Coast, it could curve to the north and also impact areas from the northeastern Gulf Coast to the Carolinas. Given the upper level weather pattern, there is the distinct possibility for at least 2 separate landfalls with Dorian.

As of right now, my forecast is for the center of Dorian may come ashore somewhere between West Palm Beach and Titusville sometime during the day on Sunday as a 100 to 120 mph hurricane.

In addition, there is the possibility that Dorian could cross the Florida Peninsula and move into the eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico setting up the potential for a second hurricane landfall in the Florida Panhandle or along the Alabama coast around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Bottom Line Is That Dorian has the potential to be a very formidable hurricane and everyone across the northern Bahamas, the Florida Peninsula, Florida Panhandle, Georgia and the Carolinas should be watching the progress of Dorian extremely closely.

Model Track Forecast For Dorian:

Model Intensity Forecast For Dorian:

Satellite Imagery Of Dorian:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday Morning.