Hurricane Dorian:
5 am EDT/4 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 20.5 North Latitude, 66.6 West Longitude or about 425 miles to the east-southeast of the southeastern Bahamas.
Maximum Winds: 85 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 Millibars or 29.27 Inches.
Forward Movement: Northwest at a forward speed of 13 mph.

During the overnight hours, some dry air was pulled into the circulation of Dorian and this has stopped the hurricane from strengthening for now. Even with that, microwave satellite imagery indicates that the core of Dorian is trying to recover and the structure remains fairly healthy in spite of some southwesterly wind shear and dry air entrainment. I suspect that we will see Dorian remain steady-state in terms of intensity with strengthening expected to commence on Friday and possible rapid strengthening as we get into Saturday.

Weather analysis indicates that there is an upper level low pressure system located to the west of Dorian and this weather feature is what is imparting the southwesterly wind shear onto Dorian. By this evening into Friday, this upper level low pressure system is expected to move to the west-southwest while at the same time Dorian moves to the northwest. This will cause the net wind shear over the storm to decrease and the hurricane will no longer be impacted by dry air intrusion. This means that by Friday and certainly by Saturday, significant and very possibly rapid strengthening is expected. This means that Dorian will probably become a major hurricane sometime on Friday and may have up to 130 to perhaps 135 mph maximum winds by Saturday night and Sunday.

Dorian is currently moving on a northwesterly course and is expected to turn to a more west-northwesterly and westerly track as a ridge of high pressure builds to the north of the hurricane and that upper level low pressure system moves to the southwest. One of the key things in trying to figure out the forecast track of Dorian is how strong and persistent the ridge of high pressure will be. A stronger ridge of high pressure would put south Florida and then parts of the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast at a substantial risk from Dorian. A weaker and more transient ridge of high pressure would lead Dorian to turn to the northwest which would put areas from central and north Florida through parts of Georgia and the Carolinas at a significant risk from Dorian.

Last night’s 00Z GFS model had the furthest north track which showed a weak ridge of high pressure leading Dorian to come ashore near the Florida/Georgia stateline. The European model and the UKMET model is forecasting a stronger ridge of high pressure, which causes Dorian to make landfall in south Florida. One change though with the European and UKMET models is that both models now forecast that ridge of high pressure to weaken just as the hurricane comes ashore. This leads to a forecast of Dorian slowing way down, turning northward and traveling from south to north up the spine of the Florida Peninsula.

One thing that is actually very similar between the UKMET, European and GFS model is that they show the steering winds around Dorian to weaken considerably at landfall leading to a very slow forward motion and even the potential for a stall as it makes landfall. There is a much larger spread in the forecast tracks with the latest European EPS ensemble guidance. The reason for this is because there is increasing uncertainty as to how quickly the ridge of high pressure will weaken and how far west Dorian tracks before that high pressure ridge breaks down causing the slowdown in forward speed and turn to the north.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that the center of Dorian will come very close to the islands of Great Abaco and Grand Bahama during Sunday as a 130 to 135 mph hurricane.

From there, I think that the center of Dorian will come ashore somewhere between West Palm Beach and Cocoa Beach sometime during the day on Monday as a 125 to 135 mph hurricane.

Beyond this, there are a couple of possible tracks that Dorian could take.

1. That high pressure system remains strong and doesn’t break down leading to Dorian tracking westward across central and south Florida. This is followed by a slowdown in the track and a turn to the north causing Dorian to move near or along the west coast of Florida into the Florida Panhandle.

2. That high pressure system weakens enough to cause Dorian to slow down right at landfall leading to a track from south to north across the spine of the Florida Peninsula. This would not only bring tropical storm and hurricane conditions to a large part of the Florida Peninsula, but also tropical storm and hurricane conditions would spread into southern and southeastern Georgia and parts of the Carolinas.

For Those Of You In The Northern Bahamas, The Florida Peninsula, The Florida Panhandle, Georgia & The Carolinas: There is a significant risk for a major hurricane impact that begins in the northern Bahamas on Sunday and spreads into central and south Florida on Monday. This includes the threat for a significant storm surge on Florida’s East Coast, hurricane force winds and heavy rainfall.

If Dorian slows down in forward speed, it could exacerbate the wind damage, storm surge flood damage and the potential for significant flooding across the Florida Peninsula. At this point, central and south Florida has the highest risk of this.

With that said, should we see Dorian track right up the spine of the Florida Peninsula, it would bring damaging winds to much of the Florida Peninsula, a significant storm surge to both the East and West coast of Florida and flooding rains across much of the Florida Peninsula.

Also, there is the possibility that parts of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia and the Carolinas could be significantly impacted by Dorian, however, this is a big unknown right now and depends on the exact track of the hurricane.

Bottom Line Is That Dorian is expected to be a major hurricane and is expected to bring significant impacts to the northern Bahamas on Sunday and to parts of the Florida Peninsula on Monday. I recommend that hurricane preparations should already be underway.

In addition, the Florida Panhandle, parts of southern Georgia and the Carolinas could also be significantly impacted by Dorian. With that said, my recommendation for now is to just keep a very close eye on the progress of Dorian.

Model Track Forecast For Dorian:

Model Intensity Forecast For Dorian:

Satellite Imagery Of Dorian:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday Morning. If there are significant changes to the forecast of Dorian during the day today, then an update may be issued this evening.