Major Hurricane Dorian:
8 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 25.8 North Latitude, 73.0 West Longitude or about 280 miles to the east of the northwestern Bahamas.
Maximum Winds: 145 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 Millibars or 27.88 Inches.
Forward Movement: West at a forward speed of 12 mph.

Dorian is a powerful Category 4 hurricane this morning with reconnaissance aircraft finding 145 mph maximum winds and a central barometric pressure of 944 millibars. Satellite imagery shows that Dorian has a 10 to 15 mile wide eye with a nearly circular eyewall.

Dorian is now moving on a west-northwestward track and a high pressure ridge to the north of the hurricane is currently expected to steer it on a westward course this weekend. This is the “easy” part of the forecast.

As we get into early next week, the forecast track becomes extremely complicated and difficult with a high degree of uncertainty. In the past 24 hours, the model guidance have shifted the forecast track of Dorian from one that would severely impact the Florida Peninsula to one that will remain just offshore of the east coast of Florida.

So, why the huge shift in the forecast track in just 24 hours time?

It all has to do with a huge complex of thunderstorms on Thursday night that tracked across the central Plains states. The energy released by these thunderstorms caused an upper level trough moving from the Plains states to strengthen more than what was previously forecast. This, in turn, is expected to weaken the western side of the high pressure ridge that is currently pushing Dorian to the west. The result is a weaker ridge of high pressure that allows Dorian to turn more easily to the north before reaching the Florida Peninsula. This whole forecast setup is what the current model guidance is currently forecasting.

So, should we completely trust what the model guidance is telling us? Absolutely Not!!

Analysis of satellite data indicates that there is some restriction to the outflow pattern on the hurricane’s northwest side. This looks to be caused by an upper level ridge of high pressure that is pushing down on Dorian. So, even though a westerly track is expected for the next couple of days, that ridge of high pressure pushing down could impart a slightly south of due west track at times. Any loss in latitude in the next couple of days would lead to having to “throw out” the current model tracks.

Also, the entire high pressure ridge setup to the north of Dorian and the hurricane’s forward speed to the west will need to be watched very closely this weekend. If the high pressure ridge remains stronger than what the guidance suggests, then the hurricane will move further west than is currently forecast by guidance before that turn to the north.

Now to talk about the current model guidance – The model guidance forecasts with Dorian have been atrocious and the huge shift in the guidance in the last 24 hours has been a great example of this.

At this time, the GFS ensemble and European ensemble model guidance are trending further offshore of both the east coast of Florida and the Carolina coastline with many ensemble members not even making landfall now. If this trend continues, it would obviously be very good news. With that said, the eastern Florida Peninsula, southeastern Georgia, coastal South Carolina and coastal North Carolina is far from being out of the woods and it’s still too soon to determine where and even if Dorian will make landfall between eastern Florida and eastern North Carolina.

A couple of things to point out –

First is that the east coast of Florida remains at significant risk from being impacted. Even if Dorian remains just offshore, significant rain and wind would still impact the eastern Florida Peninsula on Monday night and Tuesday. We saw this exact track scenario pan out with Hurricane Matthew in 2016.

Second – Given the wild swings in the model data in just the last 24 hours, I’m far from being confident in saying that the model swings are done. It is entirely possible that we could see the guidance trend back to the west and closer to Florida with the forecast track of Dorian. It all comes down to the direction and forward speed that Dorian tracks at over this weekend. Any small changes in that will have big implications on the forecast track of the hurricane.

Are things more encouraging for the Florida east coast than they were just 24 hours ago? That is a very cautious yes, but I am far from being confident with ruling at least the Florida east coast clear from significant impacts from Dorian.

If by this evening’s model guidance suite output, we see a continued trend away from a Florida Peninsula impact, then I think my confidence in saying Florida is safe will significantly increase. At that point though, we will then have to closely look at the potential for a possible landfall in either South Carolina or North Carolina around Wednesday night or Thursday.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that the eye and eyewall of Dorian will pass right over the Abaco islands and Grand Bahama island from Sunday right through Monday as a 150 mph hurricane. This is expected to be an extremely prolonged very major hurricane strike on the northwestern Bahamas. In fact, it may not be until sometime Tuesday until Dorian begins to move away from the northwestern Bahamas. This means the Abaco islands and Grand Bahama island may be in for 48 continuous hours of hurricane conditions!!

My thinking as of right now (and this forecast will more than likely change) is for Dorian to parallel the east coast of Florida with the eye of the hurricane remaining about 50-100 miles offshore. I cannot stress enough on how uncertain this forecast is and that small changes in direction and forward speed could lead to the eye coming ashore somewhere on the east coast of Florida.

Further north, there is an increasing threat that Dorian could make landfall somewhere between Myrtle Beach, South Carolina on Wednesday and the outer banks of North Carolina on Thursday. At this point though, this is a very low confidence, high uncertainty forecast.

There are at least three possible tracks that Dorian could end up taking:

1. The combination of a faster than forecast forward speed of the hurricane and a slightly stronger ridge of high pressure system would cause Dorian to make landfall on the eastern Florida Peninsula. This would bring hurricane conditions to the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula with tropical storm and hurricane conditions also impacting southern Georgia and parts of South Carolina. I give this first possible track a 25 percent chance of occurring.

2. Dorian stalls long enough over the northwestern Bahamas so that the high pressure ridge breaks down enough leading to a northward track about 50 to 100 miles offshore of the eastern Florida coast. This would be close enough to bring some tropical storm conditions to parts of the east coast of Florida with a hurricane landfall possible in northeastern South Carolina or eastern North Carolina. I give this second possible track scenario a 55 percent chance of happening.

3. Dorian curves safely well offshore of the southeastern US coast with minimal impacts to Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. This third possible track scenario has a 20 percent chance of occurring.

Forecast Impacts For The Northwestern Bahamas:
Wind: Tropical storm force winds will overspread the northwestern Bahamas tonight with hurricane force winds expected to begin on Sunday. Over 120 to 140 mph wind gusts are expected across the Abaco islands and Grand Bahamas from Sunday right through Monday. Hurricane conditions may continue across the northwestern Bahamas right through all of Monday and all of Tuesday before subsiding late Tuesday. This is going to be a very long duration hurricane event for the northwestern Bahamas.

Storm Surge: A 10 to 15 foot storm surge is expected across Great Abaco and Grand Bahama island from Sunday through Monday.

Rainfall: 10 to 20 inches of rain is expected across the northwestern Bahamas starting on Saturday night and continuing through Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

Forecast For The Florida Peninsula, Especially The Eastern Florida Peninsula: As it stands right now, tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are possible along parts of the east coast of Florida on Monday night and Tuesday. These gusty winds will be accompanied by some rain squalls at times.

Now, with that said, if Dorian wobbles even just 30 to 50 miles further west than forecast, then significant hurricane conditions would impact the east coast of Florida, especially north of West Palm Beach. On the other hand, a wobble further east than forecast by just 30-50 miles would lead to a partly sunny day with rough seas. Unfortunately, both options are still very much on the table.

If you live on the eastern coast of the Florida Peninsula, you should still be prepared for the worst, just in case.

Forecast For Georgia, South Carolina & North Carolina: It is way too soon to accurately tell what type of impact Dorian will have on the South Carolina and North Carolina coast. A further offshore track would spare the Carolinas and the Georgia coastline a significant hurricane hit. On the other hand, even a small shift to the west in the forecast track of Dorian would mean hurricane conditions for coastal Georgia, coastal South Carolina and coastal North Carolina on Wednesday into Thursday.

My recommendation for those of you across coastal Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina is to keep a very close eye on the progress of Dorian and go over your hurricane preparedness kit, just in case.

Model Track Forecast For Dorian:

Model Intensity Forecast For Dorian:

Satellite Imagery Of Dorian:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday Morning. If there are significant changes to the forecast of Dorian during the day today, an update may be sent out this evening.