Hurricane Dorian:
8 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 24.2 North Latitude, 69.4 West Longitude or about 505 miles to the east of the northwestern Bahamas.
Maximum Winds: 110 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 972 Millibars or 28.70 Inches.
Forward Movement: Northwest at a forward speed of 12 mph.

Reconnaissance aircraft investigating Dorian last night found that it had intensified to a 105 mph hurricane. As of this morning, satellite imagery indicates that some dry air entrainment continues to impact the storm, however, microwave imagery indicates that there is a solid eyewall that’s obscuring the eye.

Hurricane hunter aircraft have found that Dorian continues to strengthen this morning. They have found that the hurricane now has a central barometric pressure of between 969 millibars and 972 millibars and maximum winds of 110 mph.

Analysis indicates that an upper level low pressure system continues to depart to the west and by tonight and Saturday, Dorian will be located to the northeast of the upper level low pressure system. This relative position will put the hurricane in a much more favorable environment for significant strengthening. This means that I expect Dorian to reach major hurricane status as soon as later this afternoon and will continue strengthening through this weekend. By Sunday and Monday, I expect that Dorian will have 135 to 145 mph maximum winds. Dorian is expected to be a powerful, very dangerous major hurricane that will impact the northern Bahamas on Sunday and then the Florida Peninsula on Monday night and Tuesday.

My analysis also indicates that an upper level high pressure ridge to the north of Dorian is building and expanding to the west. The weakness in the high pressure ridge that was there from Erin has filled in since the storm has lifted well to the northeast. Even though Dorian is now moving on a northwestward track, I expect to see the hurricane turn to the west-northwest as soon as tonight. A turn to a nearly due west track is expected is expected by Saturday night and Sunday.

Beyond this, there are a lot more questions than answers on when and where Dorian will turn from a westward track to a northwest to north track. A break in the ridge of high pressure is expected to occur, which should cause Dorian to slow down in forward speed as it moves onto the eastern Florida coast. Even though the model guidance are in a little better agreement with each other, their differences with where exactly Dorian turns to the northwest and north has huge implications on the impacts across the Florida Peninsula.

The GFS model and the UKMET model forecast that the turn will occur when Dorian reaches the west coast of Florida and the extreme eastern Gulf of Mexico. This type of track would bring extremely serious impacts to much of the Florida Peninsula and the eastern Florida Panhandle with hurricane force winds and extremely heavy rainfall with very significant flooding. In addition, a significant storm surge would impact both the east coast and the west coast of Florida in this scenario.

The European model forecasts that the turn to the northwest and north will occur a little earlier which leads to Dorian moving up the east coast of Florida. This type of track would bring severe hurricane conditions to the east coast of Florida from Fort Lauderdale northward all the way to Jacksonville.

One thing that all of the model guidance do agree on is that Dorian will likely slow way down in forward speed when it reaches Florida. This means that a prolonged, drawn out hurricane event looks likely, including up to 36 to possibly 48 continuous hours of strong, very damaging wind gusts, a dangerous storm surge and a very prolonged heavy rain event that looks to bring significant to major flood problems across a large part of the Florida Peninsula.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that the center of Dorian will come very close to or track right over the islands of Great Abaco and Grand Bahama during Sunday as at least a 140 to 145 mph hurricane.

From there, I think that the center of Dorian will come ashore somewhere between Vero Beach and West Palm Beach on Monday night as a 130 to 145 mph hurricane.

I do have concerns that the stronger Dorian becomes over the next couple of days, the further south it may make landfall on the Florida Peninsula. The reason why is because a really strong hurricane is able to strengthen the ridge of high pressure to the north leading to a longer track to the west with even dips to the southwest at times. This is what the UKMET model may be seeing as it forecasts Dorian to make landfall between Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach on Monday night. It should be noted that the UKMET has been the best performing model in terms of its forecast track and should be taken seriously.

Beyond this, there are at least three possible tracks that Dorian could take.

1. That high pressure system remains strong and doesn’t break down as quick leading to Dorian tracking westward across south Florida with the eye moving from near Port St. Lucie/Stuart to near Naples. This is followed by a slowdown in the track and a turn to the north causing Dorian to move near or along the west coast of Florida into the eastern Florida Panhandle. This would not only bring tropical storm and hurricane conditions to a large part of the Florida Peninsula, but also tropical storm and hurricane conditions would impact the eastern half of the Florida Panhandle. Additionally, a significant storm surge would impact both the west and east coast of Florida as well as across the eastern Florida Panhandle. I give this first track scenario a 35 percent chance of occurring.

2. That high pressure system weakens enough to cause Dorian to slow down right at landfall leading to a track from south to north across the spine of the Florida Peninsula. This would not only bring tropical storm and hurricane conditions to a large part of the Florida Peninsula, but also tropical storm and hurricane conditions would spread into southern and southeastern Georgia and parts of the Carolinas. I give this possible track a 40 percent chance of occurring.

3. That high pressure system breaks down even quicker. This leads to Dorian to scrape along the east coast of Florida from near Fort Lauderdale all the way to the Georgia border. I give this third possible track scenario a 25 percent chance of happening.

Forecast Impacts For The Northern Bahamas:
Wind: Tropical storm force winds will overspread the northern Bahamas on Saturday night with hurricane force winds expected throughout the day Sunday. Over 120 mph wind gusts are expected, especially on the islands of Great Abaco and Grand Bahama on Sunday.

Storm Surge: A 10 to 15 foot storm surge is expected across Great Abaco and Grand Bahama island on Sunday.

Rainfall: 10 to 15 inches of rain is expected across the northwestern Bahamas starting on Saturday night and continuing through Sunday and Sunday night.

Forecast Impacts For The Florida Peninsula:
Wind: Tropical storm force winds will overspread much of the Florida Peninsula from southeast to northwest on Monday afternoon and Monday night. Hurricane force winds are expected on Monday night and Tuesday across at least the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula. Over 120 mph wind gusts are expected on Monday night into Tuesday morning along the southeast and east coast of Florida from West Palm Beach to Melbourne.

Storm Surge: A 4 to 8 foot storm surge is currently forecast from Jupiter to West Palm Beach. A 6 to 10 foot storm surge is forecast from Palm City and Stuart northward to the Georgia border, especially if Dorian tracks right up the spine of the Florida Peninsula. In addition, a significant storm surge of 10 feet or more is possible on the west coast of Florida when the wind turns onshore.

These storm surge values will likely be refined once we get a better idea of the exact track of Dorian.

Rainfall: 8 to 15 inches of rainfall is expected across the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula from Monday to Wednesday. 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is expected across the western half of the Florida Peninsula from Monday to Wednesday.

Hurricane Preparations should be well underway across the Florida Peninsula.

For Those Of You In The Florida Panhandle, Georgia & The Carolinas: The potential impacts are highly dependent on the ultimate track of Dorian. If Dorian ends up tracking up the west coast of Florida, then significant impacts could occur across the eastern Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia.

On the other hand, if we see a track along the east coast of the Florida Peninsula, significant impacts could occur across southeastern Georgia and across the coastal Carolinas.

My recommendation for the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia and the coastal Carolinas is to keep a very close eye on the progress of Dorian and go over your hurricane preparedness kit, just in case.

Model Track Forecast For Dorian:

Model Intensity Forecast For Dorian:

Satellite Imagery Of Dorian:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday Morning. If there are significant changes to the forecast of Dorian during the day today, an update may be sent out this evening.